Sunrise Post-Report Commentary: 

Corn acres came in well above the highest pre report estimate today. This is a bearish number no matter how you spin it. If you insert that number into the latest USDA S/D table, it spits back out a 2.659 corn carry out. THAT IS MASSIVE. We will drive the corn price low enough to generate more exports if we grow the crop to support that carryout. 

Bean and wheat acres came in near expectations. Neutral numbers and has little to no impact on the price action.

Now for the bearish stuff:

Corn Stocks: Total stocks are up 22% year on year across the US. On farm corn stocks are up 36.5% year over year in the US. THAT IS HUGE!!! Here in Ohio total stocks are up 24% year over year. BIG BIG BIG! We have one quarter left in the crop year, here in Ohio, that means we have roughly 100,000,000bu of demand to fill with corn from June 1 forward. We have 249,939,000bu to fit into that demand. On farm stocks are 140,000,000bu. Just let that sink in. The farmer alone has WAAAAAYYYYYY more corn than we have demand wise in the state. I already had one farmer tell me he had an ethanol plant bid him a premium for September corn. I sure hope he sold it. I do not see room for much basis appreciation as we move toward the end of the crop year. 

Soybean Stocks: Across the US, Soy stocks are up 22% year over year. On farm stocks are up 45% year over year. OUCH! Ohio stocks are up 25% year over year. On farm stocks on the state are up 63% year over year. Sure, feels like these current soy premiums at the crush plants need sold in a big way. In Ohio, we have 34,000,000bu of demand to get to September 1, and we have 76,593,000bu between the farm and commercial space. Seems like we make it to the finish line with out much issue. 

To wrap this up, the report today gave us bearish news that we haven't felt in a while. On top of that, we seem to have ample moisture for the current crop to get through a good part of July with more rain on the way. Hope is not a plan. Action is needed on new crop bushels. I want to encourage everyone to call their GSA and come up with a marketing plan for what is in the field if you have not already done so.

Scott Frey
Vice President of Grain
Sunrise Cooperative